DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/04 11:56
Additional Weakness Develops Through Cattle Futures
Follow-through pressure developed in live cattle and feeder cattle trade
Monday morning, causing additional technical pressure as nearby price levels
have not moved through recent support levels, creating concerns of further
Cattle futures continue to erode lower with active triple-digit losses seen
in all contracts. The general lack of support seen at the end of last week,
combined with weakness in cash cattle prices and beef values, has added to the
overall technical pressure developing across the complex.
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures have now fallen below recent support
levels set last week, creating concerns of additional follow-through pressure
until buyer support is comfortable stepping into the market. Even at current
price levels, buyers are going to find it hard to quickly move into the market
due to the market volatility seen in all contracts, and this will likely
continue until selling pressure subsides.
Hog futures are mixed to mostly higher with limited to moderate support seen
in 2024 contract months, although prices could remain in a narrow price range
through the early part of the week. The softness in cattle trade may continue
to limit overall lean hog market optimism. March corn is up 1 1/4 at $4.86 and
January soybean meal is down $3.40 at $409.3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
is down 96.40 at 36,149.10.
Live cattle futures are under pressure with $1 to $2 per cwt losses
developing through Monday morning. The strong pressure late last week has
significant changed the overall market tone, with prices falling below recent
support levels during morning trade Monday. This market weakness has not caused
additional technical selling pressure to develop, allowing cattle market
fundamentals to have less control in directing price moves. Continued weakness
in feeder cattle continues to be one of the main drivers of the weakening live
cattle complex during early December trade.
Cash cattle activity remains quiet with bids and asking prices not expected
until midweek or later. Last week's trade took place through the entire week
with prices $2 to $4 per cwt lower, creating underlying softness in the market.
Further pressure in futures trade and beef values could make steady cash
markets a long shot, but the hope is that market conditions will quickly change
through the week.
December live cattle are $2.13 lower at $167.15, February live cattle are
$1.75 lower at $167.375, April live cattle are $1.73 lower at $169.90. Boxed
beef prices are lower: choice down $1.82 ($295.64) and select down $1.63
($263.64) with a movement of 80.03 loads (38.85 loads of choice, 14.77 loads of
select, 12.57 loads of trim and 13.84 loads of ground beef).
Feeder cattle futures have posted additional strong losses with prices $3 to
$4 per cwt lower at midday. The underlying pressure developing Monday is based
on spillover weakness that developed late last week. Technical pressure
continues to be the main driver of market activity with nearby contracts
quickly falling below support levels seen last week with very little indication
that buyers are able or willing to step into the market until markets stabilize.
January feeders are $3.60 lower at $210.825, March feeders are $3.78 lower
at $213.45 and April feeders are $3.73 lower at $217.45.
Light to moderate gains have trickled into most lean hog futures Monday
morning. The underlying support in the complex is based on lack of attention in
the hog complex with most of the morning selling pressure diverted to the
cattle markets. December futures are trading lower, but the light trade is
focused on position adjustments as traders move away from December contract
positions into 2024 contract months. December lean hogs are $0.25 lower at
$68.35, February lean hogs are $0.35 higher at $70.45 and April lean hogs are
$0.33 higher at $76.70.
Hog Prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $0.57 with
a weighted average of $56.22, ranging from $52.00 to $60.00 on 2,659 head with
a five-day rolling average of $58.84. Pork Cutouts totaled 155.21 loads with
138.56 loads of pork cuts and 16.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up
$1.70 at $82.85.
Rick Kment can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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