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DTN Early Word Opening Livestock       08/19 05:58
   Spillover Weakness Expected Monday Morning

   Sharp lean hog losses Friday will weaken market direction early Monday
morning, although a combination of short-covering and follow-through selling is

By Rick Kment
DTN Analyst

Cattle: Lower   Futures: Mixed   Live Equiv: $153.27 +1.63*
Hogs:   Lower   Futures: Lower   Lean Equiv: $ 91.12 -1.97**

*   based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue


   Given the continued bearish market direction in cattle trade, cash cattle
interest is expected to remain at a standstill through the first couple of days
this week. Showlist distribution and inventory taking is likely to be the
extent of any cash market information seen during the week. Now that we have a
complete week in the books following the Tyson plant fire, it will be
interesting to monitor and watch daily slaughter numbers. I would expect that
overall numbers would be steady to higher than last week's levels, which may
eliminate some of the overall pressure from causal market watchers and some
noncommercial traders. Especially since "year-ago slaughter numbers" give us a
less complete picture due to the overall changes in market structure over the
last year. Firm pressure last week has caused live cattle and feeder cattle to
remain generally oversold. This is expected to spark additional potential for
moderate-to-firm gains through the week, although the renewed bearishness in
hog trade is likely to limit upward movement.
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